[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS E,BEDDED IN THE ITCZ S OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS ALONG 24W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS WAVE MAY DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 21N54W TO
15N59W. AN WEAK 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
18N57W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WNW AT 15 KT AND IS WELL DEPICTED
ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 53W-58W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 9N22W 8N29W 8N37W.
SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ON THE WESTERN END
OF THE ITCZ NEAR 9N41W. MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 39W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT CONTINUES TO COVER THE
REGION NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A
FEW AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ROAM THE PREMISES.
MARINE OBS COMBINED WITH SATELLITE LOW LEVEL DERIVED WINDS SHOW
NORTHERLY FLOW 5 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLC ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM SANTIAGO DE CUBA NEAR
20N76W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N TO 20N BETWEEN 74W AND
80W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS W OF 80W S OF 14N. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION WHILE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 63W AND 68W BOTH S OF 18N. THESE TWO
SYSTEMS ARE PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO
THE EASTERN BASIN E OF 70W...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
FALLING OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE US/UK VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. CONSIDERABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
NOTED IN THIS REGION FROM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
LOCALLY FLASH FLOODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
OVER THESE REGIONS. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP CONVECTION IN THIS REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE WORK WEEK. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN
US SEABOARD SUPPORTING A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH THAT
ENTERS THE WESTERN REGION NEAR 32N72W AND CONTINUES S ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS ALONG 27N75W TO 21N76W. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM COVERS A BROAD AREA EAST OF THE ANALYZED SURFACE
FEATURE N OF 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION S OF 23N BETWEEN 61W AND 67W.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION N OF 22N E OF 63W...UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 35N48W. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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