[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021717
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 22W/23W
S OF 14N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS
NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-14N
BETWEEN 18W-21W...AND FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 24W-26W. THIS WAVE MAY
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N52W TO
14N58W. AN EMBEDDED 1009 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N55W.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT 15 KT AND IS WELL DEPICTED ON SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 50W-57W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 11N23W 10N30W 10N40W. BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N
BETWEEN 45W-50W. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ON THE ITCZ NEAR
10N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN
40W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
10-15 KT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. PATCHES OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DOT THE
ENTIRE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...
CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 22N77W TO THE SW
CARIBBEAN AT 13N80W DRIFTING E. A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE
WAVE AXIS JUST W OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W S OF
18N MOVING W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF PUERTO
RICO FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 64W-68W. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 60W S OF 16N MOVING W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 57W-62W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 76W-83W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA AT 19N78W.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE
EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT... LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N71W TO E CUBA AT
22N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-26N
BETWEEN 75W-79W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 35N48W. ANOTHER 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N16W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AT 23N68W. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N40W. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N28W. EXPECT
...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVES AND SURFACE LOWS TO MOVE W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MRF/SMM






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net