[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 8N20W 7N40W
8N50W TO 7N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 12W AND 37W...AND
WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N26W 11N41W 8N60W
NEAR THE BORDER OF GUYANA AND VENEZUELA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM 21N110W...ACROSS
MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 23N96W...BEYOND SOUTHERN ALABAMA. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE NEXT DEEP LAYER
TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A. MIDWEST. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF
COAST FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. A REMNANT
CLOUD LINE PASSES OVER THE BAHAMAS TO THE NORTH OF 23N AND IT
REACHES FLORIDA ALONG 82W FROM 28N TO 29N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
WEST OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE
MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 22N98W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO THE EAST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF 12N83W 10N76W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA TO SOUTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 64W AND 68W...ENCOMPASSING COASTAL VENEZUELA TO BONAIRE
IN THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. THE ITCZ HAS BEEN ALONG THE
VENEZUELA COAST. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
10N TO 20N BETWEEN 82W AND 87W...ENCOMPASSING THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS...HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND NORTHERN COSTA
RICA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE IN CLUSTERS...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N48W
TO 28N55W AND 21N64W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 27N50W 23N60W 24N72W. A REMNANT CLOUD
LINE CONTINUES FROM 24N72W...TO FLORIDA ALONG 82W FROM 28N TO
29N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE CLOUD LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W 26N50W 22N60W
22N70W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE NORTH OF 23N...TO 31N81W.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 23N38W. A TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 23N36W
21N40W AND 24N44W. THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW THAT HAS BEEN IN
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF
40W DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS REMAINS...BUT IN A COMPARATIVELY
WEAKER FORM AND WEAKENING WITH TIME. CYCLONIC FLOW NOW IS TO THE
NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 30W.
A COLD FRONT GOES FROM 31N14W TO 26N18W. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE
CONTINUES FROM 26N18W TO 23N23W AND 21N30W. RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE
EAST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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