[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF GAMBIA/SENEGAL TO 11N30W 9N40W
9N50W...CURVING INTO NORTHEASTERN GUYANA. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE OVER THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...ON TOP OF
BROAD SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
27N69W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT TO SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 25N87W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW...TO THE EAST
OF 92W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W. LOW CLOUDS
AND HAZE IN THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST
OF 95W FROM MEXICO TO TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN VENEZUELA TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
14N72W...TO 11N76W...TO THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA/
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 71W AND 72W...
AND OVER THE WATERS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 150 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM THE COAST OF
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE CURVING ACROSS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM
EASTERN HONDURAS TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TOWARD
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
33N58W TO 27N69W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 29N60W 27N69W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 27N69W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND CONTINUES
AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N87W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS
FROM 240 NM TO 400 NM TO THE WEST OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT...
TO THE NORTH OF 31N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE 32N56W-TO-NORTHERN BAHAMAS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT IS ALONG
31N50W...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
26N61W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ANOTHER
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
TO 14N51W. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH
OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 40W. A 997 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
18N40W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT GOES FROM THE 997 MB LOW CENTER TO
A 998 MB LOW CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N24W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES
FROM THE 997 MB LOW CENTER TO 25N31W AND 22N40W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE 998 MB LOW CENTER TO 30N21W AND 18N34W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N15W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS
TO 24N23W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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