[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W
WESTWARD ALONG 6N20W 7N30W 6N40W 6N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 35W

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR 25N81W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 24N85W
BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N92W TO 18N93W. THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM HAS LOST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY MONDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
DRY SW FLOW ALOFT COVER THE BASIN SUPPRESSING MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALLOWING
FOR JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA KEYS AND WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT. RETURN FLOW 15-20 KT
IS OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 93W...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NW BASIN WITH CONVECTION AND
GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...A
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL BASIN
CARRYING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR AND TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS ANALYZED
FROM 15N71W TO PANAMA ALONG 12N76W 9N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 77W. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS W OF 80W S OF 15N. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL ANTI
CYCLONIC ENVIRONMENT. THE OVERALL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER OVER THE SAME AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SUB-TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAK IS FOUND IN THE WEST ATLC
ENHANCING A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W...EXTENDING SW TO NEAR
27N70W...WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W...AND STARTS TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 80 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N62W DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC PROVIDING MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS W OF 36W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A 933 MB OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
29N36W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG
26N33W 24N38W 25N43W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS NORTH FROM THE
CENTER ALONG 32N35W TO NEAR 31N25W...WHERE A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO THE E...AND A COLD FRONT TO THE S ALONG 23N26W
19N34W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL
EAST OF THE LOW CENTER AND COLD FRONT...N OF 22N E OF 24W. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION CORRELATES WITH THE STRONGEST AREA OF
DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS
N OF 24N E OF 42W AND SEAS 17-21 FT IN NW SWELL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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