[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN NOV 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 6N25W 6N40W EQ51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
30W-40W

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 24N87W
22N92W 18N93W.  THE FRONT BEGAN TO WEAKEN AFTER ITS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT PUSHED E OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ERN CONUS TO OUT
OVER THE W ATLC WATERS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NOW COVERS THE BASIN
ALONG WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE DAMPENING MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE SRN FLORIDA KEYS...AND
POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDING IS BEHIND THE
FRONT CENTERED OVER E CENTRAL MEXICO...AND TO THE N OVER W
VIRGINIA. A SURFACE TROUGH LINES THE E TEXAS COASTLINE WITH NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT BEFORE A STRONGER FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A HORIZONTALLY ALIGNED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WITH AXIS ALONG 14N CENTERED N OF VENEZUELA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES DRY AIR TO THE N OF 17N WHICH IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. TO THE
S...MOISTER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE
RIDGE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 65W-75W...AND FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 76W-81W. SOME OF THE
THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO ENHANCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 15N71W TO NE COLOMBIA NEAR 10N73W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N63W EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE
NW BAHAMAS TO S FLORIDA NEAR 26N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB
HIGH NEAR 27N60W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC PROVIDING
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NEE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
FARTHER E...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DOMINATING THE E
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 993 MB OCCLUDED LOW NEAR 29N36W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 27N36W 26N42W 29N 47W.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE CENTER ALONG 30N TO NEAR
30N26W WHERE A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO THE E...AND A COLD FRONT
TO THE S ALONG 23N30W 18N42W. THE SURFACE LOW IS SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N30W. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 21N-26N
BETWEEN 23W-28W...AND N OF 26N BETWEEN 16W-23W IN THE AREA OF
STRONGEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND
THE FRONT N OF 27N E OF 45W. A WEAK 1014 MB SURFACE HIGH IS SE
OF THE FRONT CENTERED NEAR 12N6W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON



WWWW
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