[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W TO 6N32W 8N45W 9N55W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N61W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 38W AND 40W...
AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 46W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 12N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL U.S.A. EAST COAST TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GEORGIA
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 27N80W...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALONG A RIDGE THAT PASSES
THROUGH THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER TO 22N97W ALONG THE MEXICO
GULF COAST...TO 19N95W...ABOUT 100 NM TO THE WEST OF THE COLD
FRONT IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
27N80W TO 25N87W 23N91W 19N93W 16N94W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND HAZE ARE IN MEXICO AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 95W AND 99W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS DIGGING TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW CROSSES MEXICO FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...
ACROSS THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N67W...
TO CURACAO...INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N70W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
12N TO 14N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA FROM
THE GULF OF URABA AT THE BORDER WITH COLOMBIA TO 82W. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE
ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 12N TO 16N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...IN THE AREA OF A BROAD SURFACE TO LOW
LEVEL TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE U.S.A. EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR
27N80W...AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE
U.S.A. EAST COAST TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS NEAR
18N61W AND PASSES BEYOND 32N56W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES
AROUND A RIDGE THAT IS ALONG 34N52W...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N59W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO
25N80W. ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1020 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER TO 22N55W AND 13N48W. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 46W. A TRIPLE
POINT IS NEAR 32N24W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TRIPLE POINT
TO 26N27W 20N36W...DISSIPATING AND CONTINUING TO 17N44W. A WARM
FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 32N16W...AND THEN ALONG
32N BEYOND 32N10W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE WESTERN CANARY ISLANDS AND 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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