[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 5N22W 7N40W 10N62W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ 42W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE E CONUS TO OVER
THE NW GULF WATERS N OF LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO TUXPAN MEXICO
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 27/1500 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE E
GULF NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA ALONG 23N91W TO 21N92W BECOMING
STATIONARY TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF
LEAVING THE FRONT LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION BUT
WITH LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N87W OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER MERIDA TO THE NW CORNER OF GUATEMALA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. BAND OF
DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT
LEAVING THE N GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE FAR SE GULF.
E OF THE COLD FRONT IS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHING IS PROVIDING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF AND
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING S OF 25N E OF 84W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED JUST W
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N60W ALONG 13N75W TO OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N88W. MOST OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LOCATED S OF THIS AXIS E OF 84W WHILE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT N OF THIS AXIS ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES INTO THE W ATLC. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE S CARIBBEAN S OF
14N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N
TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA BETWEEN 65W-70W AND S OF 13N TO JUST
INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA W OF 76W TO THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA. THIS IS LEAVING THE NW CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW
ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 27/1500
UTC FROM 32N72W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
MELBOURNE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE UPPER HIGH JUST W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N60W N
26N59W TO BEYOND 32N56W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA
BETWEEN 50W-75W ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N61W. THIS IS
GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR W ATLC FROM 23N-27N W OF 78W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND A BAND OF LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W TO E
OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 24N73W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-45W SUPPORTING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N30W ALONG 29N29W TO 20N40W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO NEAR 18N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 22N35W TO 30N24W
THEN BEYOND 32N25W. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1014 MB HIGH NEAR 20N20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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