[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N19W 6N37W 10N53W 9N62W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-12N
BETWEEN 46W-58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N E OF 5W TO ACROSS THE
PRIME MERIDIAN...FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 12W-16W...FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN
33W-40W...AND FROM 9N-13N E OF 58W ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN
40W-45 AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 38W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVER CANADA IS
ENTERING THE FAR NW GULF FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 26/1500 UTC ENTERS THE GULF OVER
MOBILE BAY ALABAMA ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA ALONG 29N90W
26N95W THEN TURNS SHARPLY S ALONG 23N96W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO
BETWEEN TAMPICO AND TUXPAN BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG THE SLOPES
OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A DISTINCT ROPE CLOUD DELINEATES
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS SPREADING W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE AREA FROM
LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED JUST E OF
THE BAHAMA ISLANDS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT E OF A LINE FROM PANAMA CITY
FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W
ATLC IS GIVING THE GULF E OF THE FRONT SE SURFACE FLOW. THIS
SURFACE FLOW IS DRAWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CUBA TO
OVER THE E GULF WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF 85W TO OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT TO PROGRESS E ACROSS THE GULF STALLING ACROSS THE SE GULF
SAT AND DISSIPATING ON SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 9N78W TO THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM NE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC
COVERS THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF PUERTO RICO WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR N OF THIS SAME BOUNDARY. AN UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE DEEP TROPICS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN. THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AS
WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N E OF
76W ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE N CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO
COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W AND IS ANCHORED E OF THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS NEAR 26N75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER
THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC
TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH 300 NM
SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N68W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-60W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N39W EXTENDING ALONG 23N49W 21N59W TO
23N69W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 26N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF A LINE
FROM 25N42W TO BEYOND 32N34W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 26N42W ALONG 20N50W TO 17N58W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS
OVER THE FAR NE ATLC N OF 25N E OF 25W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N11W EXTENDING S TO BETWEEN THE
COAST OF MOROCCO AFRICA AND THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N14W. A
WEAK SURFACE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH NEAR 22N29W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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