[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SIERRA LEONE/LIBERIA COASTAL BORDER TO 6N22W 4N40W...
AND INDISTINCT AFTER 4N40W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 1E AND 2W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 43W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W.
ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 12N47W 7N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 11N
BETWEEN 44W AND 46W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N56W
7N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N59W 8N62W 4N62W
NEAR THE VENEZUELA/BRAZIL BORDER. STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN
GUYANA ARE WITHIN A 30 NM TO 45 NM RADIUS OF 6N60W...AND IN
BRAZIL WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 1N BETWEEN 61W AND 63W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS...TO SOUTH TEXAS...AND THEN
CURVING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES MEXICO FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF 20N96W 28N90W
BEYOND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND FROM 20N TO 26N TO THE WEST OF 93W...
IN CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR CURACAO FOR THE TIME PERIOD
ENDING AT 26/0000 UTC WAS 2.10 INCHES. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA COASTAL WATERS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS AIDING THIS PRECIPITATION.
THE WIND REGIME THAT IS ON TOP OF COASTAL VENEZUELA CONSISTS
OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL TO LOW LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY FLOW. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALSO
COVERS THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM TRINIDAD AND VENEZUELA TO
COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA...AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REST
OF SOUTH AMERICA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE
WEST OF 77W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 81W/82W FROM PANAMA NEAR
7N TO 16N. OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS IN CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS
ARE TO THE EAST OF 81W...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST...ORIGINALLY FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF
20N TO THE WEST OF 60W. CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTH
OF 25N...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 78W. LARGE-SCALE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITH A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N42W 25N50W 23N60W 25N70W...AND AS A REMNANT CLOUD
LINE FROM 25N70W TO 31N77W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN
180 NM TO 320 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT/REMNANT
CLOUD LINE. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
COLD FRONT/REMNANT CLOUD LINE. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW EXITS THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N61W AND IT CONTINUES TO THE
SOUTH OF 21N34W BEYOND 25N15W. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. CYCLONIC FLOW IS
TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 30W. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH 32N14W...THE CENTRAL CANARY
ISLANDS...TO 24N20W. ANY POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH
OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 31W...IN CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N TO 30N BETWEEN 20W
AND THE SURFACE TROUGH...AROUND A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 22N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT









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