[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 260600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 7N12W 3N30W 4N44W...INTO
NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALONG THE LIBERIA COAST FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 12W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W. ONE
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 12N42W 8N44W 3N45W. THE CLOSEST
PRECIPITATION TO THE TROUGH IS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W...
AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COVER THE WATERS FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN
41W AND 44W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 12N59W...TO
VENEZUELA NEAR 9N61W...TO THE VENEZUELA/BRAZIL BORDER NEAR
4N62W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN CENTRAL GUYANA FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 58W AND 59W...AND
IN VENEZUELA AND BRAZIL FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH HAD BEEN ABOUT 300 NM TO THE EAST OF THE
VENEZUELA/BRAZIL TROUGH 24 HOURS AGO.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1022 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N70W TO 30N80W...TO 26N91W
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO 24N95W IN THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF. A COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH TEXAS...FROM EAST
TEXAS TO THE COASTAL PLAINS...TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR
28N100W ALONG THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES MEXICO FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...AT LEAST INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 90W IN LOW LEVEL
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CLUSTERS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF 30N88W 24N98W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR CURACAO FOR THE TIME PERIOD
ENDING AT 26/0000 UTC WAS 2.10 INCHES. THIS AMOUNT MOST PROBABLY
WAS HELPED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS
THAT PERSISTED NEAR THERE AND ALONG THE VENEZUELA COAST DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE WIND REGIME THAT IS ON TOP OF COASTAL
VENEZUELA CONSISTS OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MIDDLE
LEVEL TO LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY FLOW. BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ALSO COVERS THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM TRINIDAD AND
VENEZUELA TO COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA...AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REST OF THE SOUTH AMERICA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE
WEST OF 78W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 81W/82W FROM PANAMA NEAR
7N TO 16N. OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS IN CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS
ARE TO THE EAST OF 80W...MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF
20N TO THE WEST OF 60W. CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTH
OF 24N. LARGE-SCALE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITH A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W
27N50W 24N60W...AND DISSIPATING FROM 24N60W TO 30N77W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W
28N41W 26N45W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE
NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OF 60W...MOVING AROUND
THE 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N70W. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW EXITS THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
18N61W AND IT CONTINUES TO THE SOUTH OF 21N34W BEYOND 25N15W.
A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST
OF 30W. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH
32N16W...THE WESTERN CANARY ISLANDS...TO 25N20W. ANY POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 23W. OTHER
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST
OF 32W...IN CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N TO 30N BETWEEN 20W AND 43W...AROUND
A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT









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