[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N22W 1N31W 2N43W 1N52W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF LINE FROM 4N10W 4N14W TO 7N16W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 19W-37W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
GIVING THE GULF SW UPPER FLOW. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA COAST IS GIVING THE GULF SE TO S
SURFACE FLOW. THIS SURFACE FLOW IS DRAWING SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 26N87W ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
TO 24N80W. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER
THE GULF LATER THIS EVENING PROGRESSING E ACROSS THE GULF
STALLING ACROSS THE SE GULF LATE SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM
16N78W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 9N82W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N E OF THE TROUGH TO 78W
AND S OF 14N W OF THE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND TO THE
COAST OF COSTA RICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF LINE FROM THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS W ACROSS SW HAITI TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR N AND W OF THIS SAME
BOUNDARY. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE DEEP TROPICS COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN. THIS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH THE
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 64W-70W INCLUDING
THE ABC ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-76W.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO
COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W AND IS ANCHORED OVER THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS NEAR 25N78W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER
THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 55W AND S OF 28N BETWEEN 40W-55W. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-65W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N50W
EXTENDING WSW ALONG 28N62W THEN W TO 29N73W WHERE IT DISSIPATES
AS A STATIONARY FRONT NW OUT OF THE REGION TO THE COAST OF
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N WITH
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF
63W. AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL SHOWERS IS TO THE SE OF THE FRONT
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 27N48W TO 23N56W. A SECOND UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NE ATLC N OF 25N E OF 35W SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N19W EXTENDING SSW TO
24N25W WITH A WEAK POST-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N24W TO
26N27W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N
BETWEEN 18W-26W AND N OF 26N E OF 18W TO THE COAST OF NW AFRICA
INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC N OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 11N40W TO 6N42W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 125
NM E OF THE TROUGH AND FROM 9N-12N W OF THE TROUGH TO 47W. A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 9N61W TO 12N58W AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 225
NM E OF THE TROUGH AND SCATTERED ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM
W OF THE TROUGH INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
TRINIDAD/TOBAGO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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