[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251158 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 25 2010

CORRECTION FOR THE TIME PERIOD OF TRINIDAD RAINFALL
TO 24/1200 UTC IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE LIBERIA COAST NEAR 6N10W 4N24W 3N26W 3N40W...INDISTINCT
AFTER 3N40W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE
EAST OF 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 7N TO 12N
BETWEEN 42W AND 50W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 34W/35W FROM
6N TO 12N. IT IS NOT EASY TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN PRECIPITATION
THAT JUST ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH AND GENERAL ITCZ PRECIPITATION.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N52W 7N54W. SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W.
A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N55W 13N58W 9N60W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM THE COAST OF GUYANA/SURINAME TO
14N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA. ONE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A SECOND AND COMPARATIVELY WEAKER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE
EAST OF 90W...TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 89W AND 91W. EXPECT
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO REACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR TRINIDAD FOR THE TIME PERIOD
ENDING AT 24/1200 UTC WAS 2.25 INCHES. THIS AMOUNT MOST PROBABLY
WAS HELPED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE 17N55W 9N60W SURFACE TROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N83W
14N70W BEYOND 16N60W. BROAD LARGE-SCALE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST
OF 70W...AND EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST
OF THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLOUD CLUSTERS THAT ARE
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 60W AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ISLANDS THAT ARE MOVING TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST. SOME OF THOSE CLOUDS ALREADY HAVE MOVED INTO THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...STAYING TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 70W.
OTHER CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N...INCLUDING
BUT NOT LIMITED TO...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NICARAGUA TO PANAMA
AND THE VENEZUELA COASTAL WATERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF
20N TO THE WEST OF 65W. LARGE-SCALE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 65W. ONE
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO
22N55W. THE SURFACE 976 MB LOW PRESSURE STORM CENTER IS NEAR
42N52W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 29N70W TO
THE BEGINNING OF A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 30N78W. THE STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES INLAND BEYOND CENTRAL GEORGIA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE THE FRONT. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW EXITS THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
16N60W AND IT CONTINUES TO THE SOUTH OF 19N48W 23N30W BEYOND
27N22W. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
EVENTUALLY FEEDS INTO THIS CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES 27N22W. THE
COLD FRONT THAT IS WITH THIS TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO
25N25W 21N33W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN
24W AND 28W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
25N BETWEEN 17W AND 22W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N23W...TO 18N31W...TO
A SECOND 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N45W TO
24N58W...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
27N74W...TO THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






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