[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2300 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N14W 6N23W 7N32W 6N43W 7N57W.
A CONVECTIVE BURST IS OFF THE GUINEA AFRICAN COAST FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 13W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM EQ-10N BETWEEN 18W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 37W-45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER VENEZUELA
FROM 11N60W TO 5N62W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 50W-64W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
WITHIN A 150 NM INLAND OF THE EASTERN VENEZUELA AND GUYANA
COASTLINES.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED OVER NRN FLORIDA IS PRODUCING 15-20 KT
SE FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND EASTERLY FLOW OF
10-15 KT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROVIDING THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH FAIR WEATHER AT THIS TIME. EXPECT POSSIBLE
SHOWERS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE GULF...AS WELL AS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER NE VENEZUELA PRODUCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N E OF 68W. 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS COVER
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS S OF
HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 14N68W TO 15N73W
WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS CONVERGE WITH SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS.
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA
COAST ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE
SRN CARIBBEAN S OF 15N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA
NEAR 30N84W EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE W ATLANTIC PROVIDING MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. A COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA ALONG 31N W OF 68W ENHANCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER NE VENEZUELA IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM
6N-14N BETWEEN 50W-64W. A 1003 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 34N24W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 22N31W
DISSIPATING TO 20N33W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 170 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 24N. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG 33W N OF 18N. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
IS COVERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED S OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN THE W
ATLC TO PUSH SE BRINGING SHOWERS WITH IT...AS THE FRONT OVER THE
ERN ATLC PUSHES NE OUT OF THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS/WALTON





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