[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221717
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 6N20W 4N30W 6N54W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM THE EQ TO 6N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 15W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQ TO 8N BETWEEN 22W-36W...AND
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 42W-48W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE ITCZ
FROM 15N48W TO 7N53W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 50W-54W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO E OF TRINIDAD FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 57W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PRODUCING 15 KT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NRN YUCATAN
PENINSULA...SRN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE NE GULF. FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGING IS ALSO OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM NE NICARAGUA AT
14N83W TO PANAMA AT 8N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 77W-84W. 15-25 KT TRADE WINDS COVER THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS S OF HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA N OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-73W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 15N E OF 63W DUE
TO AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN E-W
ORIENTATED RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 14N OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER S AMERICA...SW
CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF HONDURAS PRODUCING BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE SRN CARIBBEAN S OF 16N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT
IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT NE FLOW N OF HISPANIOLA W OF 60W. A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N44W 29N54W 32N64W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHING 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE ERN ATLANTIC FROM 32N26W TO 27N33W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N ALONG 50W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 40W-50W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT
TO MOVE SE. ALSO EXPECT A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW TO FORM OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 24N37W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MRF/SMM




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