[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE GUINEA/SIERRA LEONE BORDER TO 7N20W 5N33W 7N49W INTO
NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27W/28W
FROM 3N TO 10N. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 49W/50W FROM
6N TO 13N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 3N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...2N8W 4N20W 9N46W 11N60W. IT IS NOT
EASY TO DISTINGUISH BETWEEN PRECIPITATION THAT JUST IS RELATED
TO EITHER TROUGH AND WHAT IS RELATED JUST TO THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 26N92W TO 21N94W BEYOND THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SOME RAINSHOWERS THAT
ALREADY HAVE DISSIPATED DEVELOPED AND MOVED WESTWARD SLIGHTLY
FROM SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA TO THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN
87W AND 89W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE COVERS THE AREA.
SURFACE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS EVERYWHERE. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS AGAINST THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM CENTRAL PANAMA
TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE NICARAGUA
COAST. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN COASTAL VENEZUELA
TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W...AND ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ARE IN AN AREA OF BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 50W.
SOME OF THOSE RAINSHOWERS HAVE REACHED SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS. THE CLOUDS ARE MOVING WESTWARD DUE TO THE
LARGE-SCALE SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 55W. A COLD FRONT IS TO THE NORTH OF 32N
BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS
THIS COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH 32N51W
TO 20N53W. AN EARLIER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N32W TO 27N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
27N40W TO 25N47W AND 22N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N27W 29N29W 27N33W 24N38W 22N43W 20N48W...AND WITHIN 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N30W 26N40W 24N48W 21N56W 21N60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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