[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 06N10W 04N18W 04N27W 04N36W 07N45W
06N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN
06W-13W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 08N BETWEEN 17W-24W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 03N-10N ALONG 27W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER
WEST...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N-13N ALONG 49W
WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR
ALOFT AND EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE
SE GULF NEAR 24N88W. HOWEVER...DUE TO SUCH STRONG SUBSIDENCE...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOT SUPPORTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
BESIDES A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA S OF 27N. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE
BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC
OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 33N73W. FURTHERMORE...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW GULF N-NE OVER THE SE
CONUS THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W ATLC REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND
GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND EMERGE INTO THE NW WATERS LATE
THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ANCHORED OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N63W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WESTWARD TO BEYOND NORTHERN GUATEMALA NEAR 17N90W. EMBEDDED
BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 10N-15N ALONG 83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS SW OF A LINE FROM 15N83W TO
11N77W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND MUCH OF NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES
TO BE MAXIMIZED OVER THIS AREA AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT FANS
OUT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...LOW-LEVEL SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG COASTAL REGIONS OF
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N62W
TO 13N76W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF STRONG NE TRADES ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTERN ATLC
HIGH PRESSURE...THAT CONTINUES TO FEED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES AND LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING. THE NE TO E
TRADES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN
SEA...WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE
BASIN BETWEEN 15N AND 32N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE RESIDES OVER THIS AREA THAT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE W ATLC NEAR
33N73W. BETWEEN 28W-36W NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXISTS AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N33W THEN SW TO 20N56W. WHILE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
FOUND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 23N43W TO BEYOND 32N30W WITH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 27W-35W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE
MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N19W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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