[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN NOV 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM SRN LIBERIA NEAR 6N8W 3N28W 6N44W
8N49W 6N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 3W-11W...AND FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 14W-18W.
ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-8N BETWEEN
18W-30W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N46W TO 4N49W
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 45W-48W...AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 50W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR EXTENDS
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
24N90W. DUE TO THE DRY AIR, THE UPPER TROUGH IS NOT SUPPORTING
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BESIDES A FEW SHOWERS NOTED OFF THE E
CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES
THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA SUPPORTING BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE ENTIRE
ERN CONUS AND FAR W ATLC. ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW UP TO 20
KTS IS AROUND THE RIDGE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN CENTERED W OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N65W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
SWATH OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE BASIN MAINTAINING
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A SHEAR LINE TO THE N OF
HISPANIOLA AND ERN CUBA IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN OFF THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA
ALONG 15N83W 11N82W 10N78W ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM NE OF THE AXIS...AND 150 NM
SW OF THE AXIS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO OFF THE NRN COAST OF
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WITHIN 150 NM DUE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS
CONVERGING AGAINST LIGHTER WINDS ALONG THE COASTLINE. EXPECT
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ALONG THE SRN PORTION OF THE BASIN
WHILE THE REMAINDER STAYS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF S CAROLINA CENTERED
NEAR 32N72W MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER WITH SOME AREAS OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NEWFOUNDLAND SE TO NEAR 18N46W SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N35W TO 22N56W WHERE
IT TRANSITIONS INTO A SHEAR LINE ALONG 21N62W 19N68W 21N76W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITHIN
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR AXIS. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG 32N32W 23N44W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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