[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 9N13W 6N23W 7N33W 6N39W 7N45W 5N55W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 14N45W 9N47W
TO 6N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO
INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 4W TO JUST ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE ITCZ TO 9N BETWEEN
50W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHALLOW SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE FLORIDA
NEAR CEDAR KEY TO NEAR 24N94W WHILE THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ARE NOTED ON
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC.
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 82W-87W AND WITHIN 45/60 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM CAMPECHE TO VERA
CRUZ LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR CONDITIONS
AGAIN THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDING OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC ANCHORED S OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
15N67W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
ENHANCE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 15N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AND
CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 61W-84W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF
16N E OF 85W...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR
CAMAGUEY TO 20N85W. THIS MOISTURE AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE
GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N OF 19N FROM 80W-84W
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE N CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE
FAR W ATLC W OF 64W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN
35W-65W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
32N38W EXTENDING SW ALONG 24N48W TO 22N59W BECOMING A STATIONARY
FRONT TO 21N66W THEN A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE TURKS AND
CAICOS TO 21N75W AND ACROSS CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THE FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N34W TO 24N41W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN
240 NM E OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E EXTENDING
FROM THE TROPICS NEAR 12N29W NE TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 22N15W.  A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC N OF 23N E
OF 30W ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 29N22W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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