[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 20 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 6N10W 5N20W 4N26W 3N32W 4N39W 8N46W
8N52W 6N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN
15W-28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-11N BETWEEN 28W-38W...AND FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 53W-59W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ
FROM 12N40W TO 5N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM WEST OF THE TROUGH FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 40W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE AREA
GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF SW TO W FLOW ALOFT WITH MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AS NOTED IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WITH A
WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
SE MISSISSIPPI ACROSS MOBILE BAY ALABAMA ALONG 29N88W TO 27N89W.
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORT WAVE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM TENNESSEE TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ALONG THE NE MEXICAN COAST FROM 20N-26N
WEST OF 95W AND ALONG THE COAST IN THE S BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF
20N BETWEEN 91W-95W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
ACROSS E CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 22N79W 19N84W TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SHEER LINE PARALLELS THE VENEZUELAN COAST
ALONG 13N63W 12N68W 13N72W 12N76W. NE WINDS TO 20 KT ARE NORTH
OF THE AXIS WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT TO THE SOUTH. THIS
CONVERGENCE OF WIND SPEED IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM N AND 60NM S OF THE AXIS.
ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE BASIN CENTERED S OF
HISPANIOLA BRINGING DRY AIR TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
DISSIPATE AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS S MAINTAINING FRESH NE TRADE
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 28N W OF 45W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N46W
EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N56W THROUGH THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR
23N75W BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS E CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. A SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 37W N OF 20N
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N43W TO 22N47W
AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 9N27W TO
W OF THE CAPE VERDE AND CANARY ISLANDS TOWARD THE AZORES...
SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NE OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTING HIGH
CLOUDS N OF 20N AND E OF 34W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE PUSHING SE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MONTALVO/WALTON







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