[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N25W 7N40W 3N52W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 11W-26W...
AND FROM 1N-11N BETWEEN 26W-43W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 46W-48W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 55W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR
24N99W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S ALABAMA AT 30N88W TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 26N88W 22N95W 19N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO
FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 95W-98W. THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH IS
VOID OF ANY PRECIPITATION. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE COAST
OF LOUISIANA N OF 28N BETWEEN 89W-93W. OF NOTE...20 KT NE WINDS
ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT.
ALSO NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FUNNELING OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W
PRODUCING GALE FORCE GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW TO W
WINDS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DISSIPATE AND
SURFACE RIDGING TO PREVAIL WITH EASTERLY FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AT 1500 UTC... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N79W
TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS ALONG 20N86W 16N87W. A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 17N86W WITH 1014
MB. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
15N-21N BETWEEN 84W-90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN FROM 16N63W TO N VENEZUELA AT 10N66W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM
12N-15N BETWEEN 64W-70W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N AND W OF 78W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA NEAR 18N77W.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF
13N BETWEEN 82W-90W...AND OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 14N. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO DRIFT W. ALSO
EXPECT THE TROUGH OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE W WITH
CONVECTION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N59W 29N62W TO
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE FRONT. A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
24N47W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 22N45W
17N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NE OF THE TROUGH FROM 25N-32N
BETWEEN 35W-40W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
28N22W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N W OF 70W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 50W-70W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-50W
WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 25N43W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR... THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS...AND
FOR THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE NE WITH MORE
CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MRF/SMM





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