[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 5N28W AND 7N39W...AND
THEN INDISTINCT ELSEWHERE. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N
BETWEEN 41W AND 43W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 38W AND 41W...
AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 48W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 12W AND 18W...AND ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL COAST FROM 2N TO 3N. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 11N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF WATERS. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PART OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W AND TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO THE
MEXICO COAST THAT IS JUST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. IT APPEARS THAT THE TROUGH THAT WAS
SUPPORTING THE TROUGH 24 HOURS AGO HAS OUTRUN THE TROUGH...AND
IT NOW IS MORE IN PHASE WITH THE TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THE
COLD FRONT. THE TROUGH IS MARKED BY A ROPE CLOUD. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...FOG/HAZE...AND POSSIBLE RAIN ARE
FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 99W
IN MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN ANDROS ISLAND OF THE
BAHAMAS...TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE BORDER WITH NORTHERN GUATEMALA. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N84W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 16N86W...CONTINUING INTO SOUTHERN HONDURAS. RAINSHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST
OF 80W WITH THE FRONT AND THE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER
BELIZE AND GUATEMALA LATER TODAY. THE LOW CENTER MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SECTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND
THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A SECOND TROUGH IS ALONG 16N63W 13N65W INTO NORTH CENTRAL
VENEZUELA NEAR 9N67W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM VENEZUELA NEAR 10N TO 15N BETWEEN
60W AND 72W OFF THE COAST OF THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF
COLOMBIA. THE ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
12N TO 15N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W ARE RELATED TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT MAY HAVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THEM ARE MOVING WESTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TOWARD PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS THAT ARE IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE
WEST OF 77W ARE IN AN AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 27N73W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 28N70W
TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W...AND BEYOND WESTERN CUBA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 27N70W
BEYOND 32N61W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO
25N45W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N48W 10N56W TO THE
COAST OF GUYANA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS FROM SURINAME TO GUYANA.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N47W TO 22N47W TO 19N56W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM 12N
TO 15N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN
35W AND 50W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W...AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 31N22W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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