[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 4N20W 5N27W 7N38W 7N48W...INTO
NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA...SURINAME...AND CENTRAL GUYANA.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 10N
BETWEEN 27W AND 44W...AND IN NORTHERN GUYANA AND COASTAL WATERS.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF WATERS. TWO COLD FRONTS ARE IN THE AREA. THE
FIRST COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE SECOND COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING WITH TIME AND IT
STRETCHES FROM 1021 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO THE
MEXICO COAST THAT IS JUST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. IT APPEARS THAT THE TROUGH
THAT WAS SUPPORTING THE NOW-DISSIPATING COLD FRONT 24 HOURS AGO
HAS OUTRUN THE DISSIPATING FRONT...AND IT NOW IS MORE IN PHASE
WITH THE TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THE FIRST COLD FRONT.
THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS MARKED BY A ROPE CLOUD THAT IS
ALONG 30N87W 28N88W 25N90W 23N94W 21N97W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N80W 25N88W 22N90W
18N92W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PRECIPITATION IS IN THIS CLOUDINESS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N86W...CONTINUING TO NORTHWESTERN
NICARAGUA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO
17N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W JUST OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS. A SECOND
TROUGH IS ALONG 17N63W 13N66W INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA NEAR
9N67W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 64W AND 65W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N NEAR DOMINICA
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W APPEAR TO BE RELATED
TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. CLUSTERS
OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT MAY HAVE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THEM ARE MOVING WESTWARD AND
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TOWARD PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO
THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 80W ARE IN AN AREA OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO 28N76W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 30N70W
TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEYOND THE FLORIDA KEYS. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 27N71W BEYOND BERMUDA. A 1018 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N68W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES
THROUGH 32N43W TO 27N45W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 18N46W
13N52W 10N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N48W TO 21N54W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W...
AND TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 35W AND 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W...AND TO THE
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GOES
FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W...AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net