[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 4N20W 5N31W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W. SCATTERED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W
AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 32W/33W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 10N
BETWEEN 27W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTH TEXAS. A THIN
ROPE CLOUD REPRESENTS THIS COLD FRONT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS ROPE CLOUD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 29N80W 24N87W 21N88W...IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SOME AND/OR ALL OF THIS
MOISTURE IS COMING FROM THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SURFACE TROUGH. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 27N78W...ACROSS
FLORIDA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA TO
EASTERN COASTAL HONDURAS INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W...AND POSSIBLY
SPILLING OVER CUBA INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 17N59W
10N62W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 11N67W
IN COASTAL VENEZUELA. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 15N58W
TO 13N63W 14N65W 13N67W. CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS THAT WERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AT 17/1200 UTC HAVE MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND
WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND NOW ARE IN THE AREA
THAT IS BOUNDED BY 20N60W 14N72W...TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF
HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N60W TO 20N68W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 56W AND
FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 27N78W JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 27N78W...ACROSS FLORIDA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
56W AND THE COLD/STATIONARY FRONT. IT MOVES AROUND A 1020 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N66W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 32N48W
TO 26N46W TO 20N46W AND 13N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N50W TO
25N49W 22N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 45W AND 50W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 38W AND
50W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 40W...MOVES AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 30N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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