[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N20W 8N31W 6N40W 4N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER WEST
AFRICA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 10W-14W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 24W-36W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 40W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM FORT PIERCE
FLORIDA TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 27N80W 25N85W. A WEAK
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE SW GULF NEAR 22N93W. THE
FRONTS ARE MOSTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION AND HAVE LITTLE
TEMPERATURE CONTRAST. 5-10 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT...
WHILE 10 KT SE WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA WHERE
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-22N BETWEEN
80W-86W DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
GULF WITH SW FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. 70-110 KT UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 90W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE CURRENT FRONT TO DISSIPATE...AND ANOTHER FRONT TO MOVE
OVER TO THE NW GULF FROM TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N82W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS NW TO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N85W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW CENTER
FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 77W-81W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 81W-87W. ELSEWHERE
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG
60W PRODUCING SHOWERS S OF 17N E OF 65W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N74W.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
75W-85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN TO DRIFT
W. ALSO EXPECT THE TROUGH OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC MOSTLY VOID OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG 32N75W 27N80W. A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N67W. A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM
THE LOW TO 25N49W 21N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF
THE TROUGH FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 38W-47W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N25W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-60W. SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-50W. A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 40W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR... THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE
E WITH SHOWERS...AND FOR THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO
MOVE SE WITH MOVE CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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