[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM GUINEA NEAR 9N13W TO 6N30W AND 4N52W INTO NORTHEASTERN
FRENCH GUIANA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
6N TO 10N BETWEEN 29W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 50W. AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N51W 15N58W 6N59W
IN NORTHERN GUYANA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 19N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS
OF GUYANA...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
60W AND 65W INCLUDING IN COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF
VENEZUELA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT WAS MORE APPARENT ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
SUPPORTING THE CURRENT COLD FRONT...HAVE LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.A. THIS NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT HAS
RESULTED IN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 30N83W
IN FLORIDA...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 23N90W...
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND CURVING TO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK. SOME PRECIPITATION
MAY BE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 82W AND
85W...IN THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W...
AND FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 92W AND 99W INCLUDING SOME HAZE AND
FOG IN MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N82W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N82W TO 11N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN
80W AND 82W...AND WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 11N73W TO 16N75W
TO 19N76W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH
OF 19N BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N51W 15N58W 6N59W
IN NORTHERN GUYANA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N
TO 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W INCLUDING IN COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL
PLAINS OF VENEZUELA. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT THIS
PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN INTACT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD
WITH THE TROUGH. THAT MEANS THAT IT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS...AND TRINIDAD AND COASTAL VENEZUELA TO
RECEIVE SOME PRECIPITATION DURING AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W...RELATED
TO CLOUDS THAT ARE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE FLOW THAT IS
AROUND THE 18N51W 6N59W SURFACE TROUGH. CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
150 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE 17N66W 20N68W 21N71W.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD AND REACH THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA DURING THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY. SOME OF THE CLOUDS ALREADY
ARE ON TOP OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 19N69W CLOSE TO
THE EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 60W AND FLORIDA. A CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THE
32N51W 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND TROUGH FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO 26N48W AND 20N51W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 25N47W
TO 16N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT STARTS FROM
A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N21W...TO 26N31W
TO 18N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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