[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N20W 5N30W 5N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST
AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 18W-23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 23W-30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
JUST N OF THE ITCZ FROM 14N57W TO 6N59W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 52W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 31N85W 25N90W 20N97W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N AND OF 27N AND W OF
89W. A SQUALL LINE IS N OF TAMPA FLORIDA FROM 30N82W TO 28N84W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 15 NM OF THE SQUALL
LINE. 15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT...WHILE 10-15 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER TEXAS
AND THE NW GULF...AS WELL AS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE GULF WITH SW FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. 70-90 KT UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N HELPING THE COLD FRONT
MOVE E FASTER. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N82W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS N TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. PATCHES OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE NW AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 70W-82W. THE SYSTEM IS DRIFTING
WNW. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N
VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND OVER
CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF
JAMAICA NEAR 17N77W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-82W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN HAS STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO DRIFT W. ALSO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER TRINIDAD AND THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N67W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1006 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 35N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N43W
25N47W 20N50W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN
40W-47W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N21W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-60W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS N
OF 22N BETWEEN 50W-60W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 40W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR...A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N74W TO S
FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA/RAMOS



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