[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 5N30W 4N40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN
16W AND 19W...AND FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 22W AND 33W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE
EAST OF 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N54W INTO NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL GUYANA NEAR 6N57W. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N
TO 11N BETWEEN 53W AND 54W...AND WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS
OF 7N58W IN COASTAL GUYANA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W...AND FROM 7N
TO 9N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 18N102W AT THE MEXICO COAST...TO 25N90W BEYOND NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE MOISTURE. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...CURVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL TEXAS GULF COAST. RAINSHOWERS
COVER THE AREA FROM THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 28N
BETWEEN 85W IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI TO 28N92W AND 26N96W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF DEPTH IN THE ATMOSPHERE. IT EXTENDS
ROUGHLY FROM THE SURFACE TO 600 MB OR SO. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ROUGHLY COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE EAST OF 72W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA TO A 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 12N77W...TO THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 9N76W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 19N BETWEEN 66W AND 82W...INCLUDING IN AND AROUND
EASTERN JAMAICA...COASTAL VENEZUELA AND COASTAL COLOMBIA. ANY
KIND OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS SHOULD BE SLOW...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 75W/76W. THIS RIDGE EXTENDS INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 32N72W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS ROUGHLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT STARTS
NEAR 16N84W IN HONDURAS...TO 20N80W...TO 17N70W AND 14N60W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES OVER WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND 32N72W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N70W TO 25N70W AND 20N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE 35N50W 1004 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND
TROUGH ALONG 35N50W 32N47W 27N50W 21N60W 24N66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 25N70W 21N65W 20N60W...AND WITHIN 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N60W 26N52W BEYOND 32N47W. A REMNANT CLOUD
LINE IS ALONG 24N49W 20N55W 18N60W INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 16N64W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE CLOUD LINE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
32N38W 26N46W 19N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
19N53W 27N45W 33N40W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE MAIN CYCLONIC CENTER
IS NEARLY 1200 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE 35N50W LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 29N24W 18N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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