[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 4N20W 2N30W 2N44W...
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 15W AND 22W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N24W 2N35W 6N47W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N48W TO 10N51W 6N52W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
5N TO 15N BETWEEN 45W AND 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO
TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...EAST
TEXAS AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BEYOND LOUISIANA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE COAST NEAR
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TO 25N95W AND 22N97W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM
25N98W IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...TO 26N90W...BEYOND 30N81W
IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH
OF 22N IN THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 25N87W 22N87W...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO 18N86W
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
15N84W 18N86W 21N87W 27N88W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES
AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ALONG 26N90W 29N82W BEYOND 32N79W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N
TO THE WEST OF 72W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N69W 15N75W...
TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N77W...AND
CONTINUING TO 10N81W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W...AND WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 11N78.5W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
ON TOP OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 70W...SHEARING SOME
OF THE CLOUD TOPS THAT ARE IN THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N55W TO 26N62W TO 22N68W TO
21N76W. A 999 MB GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N55W...WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N58W AND 26N64W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 45W AND
60W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W.
A SURFACE TROUGH 29N40W 24N47W 21N53W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N42W
26N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 17N69W 22N54W 26N45W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N10W
TO 30N20W TO 31N28W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN THE COASTS OF MOROCCO AND THE SPANISH SAHARA AND 20W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N28W...FROM 20N TO THE COLD FRONT
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 29N40W 21N53W SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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