[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150005 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 14 2010

UPDATED TO REMOVE SPECIAL FEATURE IN CARIBBEAN
CORRECTED ISSUANCE TIME

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 5N25W 1N37W 2N46W EQ53W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN
13W-22W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-7N
BETWEEN 28W-44W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N OF THE ITCZ AXIS
FROM 14N47W TO 4N52W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN
THE WRN CARIBBEAN ACCOMPANIED BY A MODERATELY DRY AIRMASS. THIS
IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF WITH
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED OVER NRN FLORIDA ANCHORED BY A
1019 MB HIGH NEAR THE BIG BEND AT 30N83W. HOWEVER...AN UPPER
LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER THE WRN GULF COAST STATES IS SUPPORTING
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE NW GULF. AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1011 MB LOW
IS JUST OFF THE SRN COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N97W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS TO THE S ALONG 25N96W 21N97W SUPPORTING POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE AXIS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS TO THE E
OF THE CENTER TO NEAR 28N94W CONNECTING TO A STATIONARY FRONT
WHICH EXTENDS TO THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N91W AND CONTINUING
NE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 25N87W TO 20N87W SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. EXPECT THE SYSTEM
IN THE NW GULF TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT
24 HRS BEFORE AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN LATE
MONDAY STRENGTHENING THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT EWD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED N OF PANAMA NEAR 12N78W CONTINUING TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF UNORGANIZED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION NE OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN
67W-76W...FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 76W-80W...AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
80W-83W. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED UNDER THE ERN EDGE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH WEAK BROAD UPPER TROUGHING TO THE E. THIS IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT THE AREA OF CONVECTION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS
THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS AS AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVES
WWD FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN
OCCLUDED 997 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N57W. THE LOW HAS SUPPORTED
SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THROUGHOUT ITS LIFETIME. A SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE LOW CENTER ALONG 31N55W TO 28N60W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF
28N BETWEEN 49W-56W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS
ALONG 32N43W TO 20N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 24N BETWEEN 40W-49W...AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 33W-40W.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN ATLC AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE
AZORES ISLANDS. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO SUPPORTING A
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH
NEAR 26N31W WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ERN ATLC. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
6N35W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS
AIDING SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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