[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN NOV 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA CENTERED NEAR
11N78W THAT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF UNORGANIZED WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM 09N-16N
BETWEEN 73W-82W. SATELLITE IMAGERY EXHIBITS A FAIRLY BROKEN
MODERATE INTENSITY CONVECTIVE BAND THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW NEAR 11N80W TO 14N79W THEN EASTWARD TO
14N74W. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOCATE ITSELF BENEATH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA ANCHORED ON AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN NICARAGUA NEAR 13N85W. THIS IS PROVIDING AN UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT AND LOWERED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...AND THEREFORE SLOW AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES W-NW.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N14W 03N30W 05N48W 06N51W 06N62W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN
03W-20W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN
27W-39W AND FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 39W-45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...ANALYZED FROM 03N49W TO 13N47W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH AS IT HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW SIGNS OF DAMPENING
OUT OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 03N-11N BETWEEN
45W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
RESIDES OVER THE GULF AND SUPPORTS A MODERATELY DRY AIRMASS
ALOFT. HOWEVER...AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF
NEAR MOBILE BAY AND EXTENDS SW TO 28N92W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY INTO A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS
SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR TAMPICO. BROWNSVILLE
DOPPLER RADAR AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW CENTER...AND RELATIVELY OVERCAST
CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY COVERING THE AREA N
OF 27N W OF 91W. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. A FEW AREAS OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM
23N-24N BETWEEN 81W-84W...AND NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM
22N-25N BETWEEN 85W-88W. LOOKING AHEAD...THE LOW IN THE NW GULF
IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY N-NE AND THEN INLAND OVER LOUISIANA
EARLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
DESERT SW AND PROGRESSES OVER TEXAS MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS DISCUSSED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 16N BETWEEN 73W-82W. THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NICARAGUA NEAR 13N85W THAT EXTENDS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD ALONG 12N TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR
11N51W. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SE CARIBBEAN WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 15N73W TO SE OF TRINIDAD NEAR 09N60W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS ALSO MAXIMIZED OVER THIS AREA IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
DUE TO STRETCHED AND ELONGATED TROUGHING FROM THE SPECIAL
FEATURES LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N IS
EXPERIENCING MOSTLY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
FILTERING SOUTH FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. DUE TO THE NE
FLOW...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ON THE
NORTHERN COASTS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS EXPECTED E OF 70W
THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN WELL OCCLUDED DEEP LAYERED GALE FORCE 998 MB LOW REMAINS
SPINNING OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC CENTERED NEAR 34N59W
SUPPORTING A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT EXTEND INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA. ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...A
STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG 32N44W SW TO 19N58W. A LARGE
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN
35W-44W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS LOCATED FARTHER SW WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF 25N. CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE LOW...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N53W
TO 25N59W AND EXHIBITS ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
EAST OF THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH N
OF 28N BETWEEN 52W-60W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC IS UNDER FAIRLY STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS DUE TO COLD
AIR ADVECTION BETWEEN 60W-75W. THE EASTERN ATLC IS LARGELY
INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 11N51W TO
32N34W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 26N28W AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 20N52W.
ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT CLIPS THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE EASTERN
ATLC ANALYZED FROM 32N15W TO 31N23W THEN STATIONARY BEYOND
32N28W. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS N OF 27N
BETWEEN 08W-21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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