[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1135 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA CENTERED NEAR
11N77W THAT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF UNORGANIZED WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA S OF 16N BETWEEN
74W AND 81W. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOCATE ITSELF BENEATH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTION. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W
WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 2N30W 3N40W 6N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED WEST OF THE ITCZ FROM 11N47W TO 2N49W. THIS TROUGH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
BETWEEN 24W AND 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 190
NM S OF THE ITCZ E OF 18W INCLUDING THE IVORY COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
INDICATE DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF. THIS SCENARIO
SUPPORTS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE NW GULF DUE TO A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI COAST NEAR 30N89W TO 28N92W.
THEN...IT BECOMES STATIONARY EXTENDING TO THE COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR 22N97W. OVERCAST LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WEST OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND EXTEND ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 1009 MB LOW DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 16N
BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. ELSEWHERE...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE
BASIN S OF PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN
65W AND 69W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF
VENEZUELA S OF 14N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NW BASIN DUE TO A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS NOTICED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN OCCLUDED DEEP LAYERED 999 MB LOW REMAINS SPINNING OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLC CENTERED NEAR 34N61W GENERATING GALE FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 270 NM ON THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS
SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIPS
WELL SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS OF PUERTO RICO. AS
AN UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAK/SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN DEEP
LAYERED LOW...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N54W AND EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 25N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH FOLLOWS
WITHIN 100 NM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 55W AND 62W. THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALSO SUPPORTS AN OLD STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS SW FROM A DISSIPATING SURFACE LOW NEAR 32N38W
TO THE SW ATLC ALONG 29N45W 25N52W 20N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
25N37W AND ANOTHER 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 27N26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net