[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0535 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA CENTERED NEAR
11N77W THAT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF UNORGANIZED WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA S OF 18N BETWEEN
71W-80W. AS THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS SLOWLY MOVED
WESTWARD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT CONTINUES TO LOCATE
ITSELF BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS PROVIDING AN UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTION. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT ...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W
WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 2N30W 3N40W 5N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EMBEDDED IN IN THE ITCZ...ANALYZED FROM 11N45W TO 2N47W. THIS
TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
INDICATE DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF. THIS SCENARIO
SUPPORTS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR THE NW GULF DUE TO A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N91W
TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 22N97W. OVERCAST LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WEST OF THE FRONT. COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
EXTEND ACROSS THE N CENTRAL BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SPECIAL FEATURE 1009 MB LOW OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 18N
BETWEEN 71W-80W. ELSEWHERE...LINGERING CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE BASIN S OF PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NW BASIN DUE TO A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS NOTICED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN OCCLUDED DEEP LAYERED 999 MB GALE FORCE LOW REMAINS SPINNING
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC CENTERED NEAR 34N61W. THIS SYSTEM IS
SUPPORTED BY THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING THAT DIPS WELL
SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS. AS AN UPPER
LEVEL JETSTREAK/SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN DEEP LAYERED
LOW...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W AND
EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 26N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH FOLLOWS WITHIN 100
NM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 56W AND 63W. THE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ALSO SUPPORTS AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS SW FROM A DISSIPATING SURFACE LOW NEAR 32N38W TO THE SW
ATLC ALONG 29N45W 25N52W 20N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. THE REMAINDER OF
THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1019 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 24N40W AND
27N26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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