[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE COASTS OF N COLOMBIA NEAR
11N77W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN
AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN
73W-82W. THE LOW LIES UNDERNEATH THE ERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERING THE WRN CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR POSSIBLE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 3N35W 6N45W 4N52W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 9W-15W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM
12N43W TO 3N46W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-10N BETWEEN 37W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO NE
MEXICO ALONG 29N92W 23N98W. 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS...OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO W
OF THE FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE E GULF E
OF 90W WITH 10-15 KT NE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO DRIFT E AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE
MEXICO WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 17N BETWEEN
63W-73W TO INCLUDE NW VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE
COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 13N82W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WHILE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 997 MB GALE LOW IS N OF THE AREA OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
34N63W. REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGHS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 50W MOVING W. AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT IS
ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30N43W 28N50W 21N58W.
EXTENDS SW FROM THIS LOW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 19N60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N27W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 50W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BETWEEN
30W-50W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR...THE FRONT TO DRIFT E WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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