[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131957
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA CENTERED NEAR 11N77W. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN
75W-84W...AND FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 73W-76W. THE LOW CURRENTLY
LIES UNDERNEATH THE ERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING
THE WRN CARIBBEAN WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROVIDING FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
WESTWARD.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W ALONG 3N25W 4N38W
6N48W 9N55W 8N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 7W-10W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 2N-6N
BETWEEN 30W-38W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 11N41W 3N42W
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
1N-11N BETWEEN 38W-43W...AND SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 44W-47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
49W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT HAS NOW PUSHED ITS WAY INTO THE NW
GULF OF MEXICO FROM NEAR LAFAYETTE LA NEAR 30N92W TO THE SRN TIP
OF TEXAS NEAR 26N97W INTO MEXICO TO NEAR 23N99W...AS OF 1500
UTC. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM
BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS TO 20 KT ARE ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF ALONG 24N96W TO 18N95W
SUPPORTING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN  30 NM EITHER SIDE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM GEORGIA
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM THE WRN
CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE SE CONUS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW BEFORE MOVING SE ACROSS THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING AREAS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF COLOMBIA AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH
IS EXTENDS NWD TO THE SE UNITED STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
TO THE E PROVIDING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF VENEZUELA FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 66W-74W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FROM 19N69W TO 18N75W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO DIE
OUT WITH CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN OCCLUDED 1000 MB LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN IN THE NW ATLC NEAR
33N64W SUPPORTED BY A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS
EXTENDING TO THE NE CARIBBEAN. DUE TO SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...THE LOW HAS MULTIPLE FRONTAL TROUGHS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THE FIRST TROUGH...CLOSEST TO THE CENTER EXTENDS FROM
32N61W TO 28N65W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150
NM AHEAD OF IT. A SECOND FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N56W
ALONG 25N63W 22N73W WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 32N52W ALONG 24N58W ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO 18N75W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30
NM. FARTHER E...A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE AREA
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 32N46W
28N47W 26N53W 20N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 46W-52W...AND WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE
AXIS S OF 25N. THIS AREA OF ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE W ATLC AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 30W-55W. THIS
UPPER RIDGE IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB
HIGH W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N23W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

WALTON




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