[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121706
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 8N34W 6N40W 6N55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 15W-18W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM
13N31W TO 3N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 27W-36W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-8N BETWEEN 28W-36W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 49W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
AXIS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE. 10-15
KT NE WINDS ARE E OF THE AXIS WHILE 10-15 KT SE WINDS ARE W OF
THE AXIS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E
OF 90W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 24N AND W OF 90W MOSTLY DUE TO RETURN FLOW. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 88W. A BAND OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXTEND FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 20N106W TO THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N95W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH
CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
FROM 19N60W TO 16N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 16N AND E OF 66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO FURTHER WEST OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA N OF 18N
BETWEEN 66W-74W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN
73W-79W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FURTHER W OVER COSTA RICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-15N
BETWEEN 81W-85W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN...HONDURAS...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 83W-92W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN EAST TO WEST UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG
12N E OF 83W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 12N. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 15N
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 998 MB LOW IS N OF THE AREA OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N64W. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N52W
TO E CUBA ALONG 25N60W 21N70W 21N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1009 MB LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR
27N52W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THIS LOW TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 19N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE FRONT. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS NE FROM THIS LOW TO
BEYOND 32N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-32N
BETWEEN 42W-47W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
35N15W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 22N W OF 50W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
BETWEEN 35W-50W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 35W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO MERGE WITH THE
STATIONARY FRONT WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA/MONTALVO




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