[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

4N27W 2N36W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N
TO 8N BETWEEN 13W AND 17W IN THE SIERRA LEONE COASTAL WATERS.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 22W AND 34W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 1N TO 7N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W...AND FROM
6N TO 10N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 9N22W
7N24W 5N26W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 17W AND 23W...AND
FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 25W AND 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A. INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 25N120W.
A STREAM OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH...WITHIN 125 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N105W 23N98W 28N90W...
BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE THE DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES ALSO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES
AROUND A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO
SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 22N60W TO
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N63W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER...ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. THIS LOW CENTER WAS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND IT HAS MOVED NORTHEASTWARD
STEADILY. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM
TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N65W...JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...TO 22N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE PENINSULA DE
PARAGUANA OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W...
AND ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 9N76.5W...AND POSSIBLY IN THE
GULF OF URABA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN TOWARD NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. THE SURFACE TROUGH
HELPS TO MARK THE BOUNDARY EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND GENERALLY
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT ARE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE GREATER ANTILLES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND
A TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 28N67W...TO THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS NEAR 22N73W. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE PASSES THROUGH 31N56W
25N66W 24N75W IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. EXPECT POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS WITHIN 15 NM OR SO ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE...AND POSSIBLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE. THE BERMUDA-
TO-22N73W TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N46W TO 28N48W TO 24N51W...CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT
TO 22N60W...AND TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
21N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER...ACROSS
EASTERN PUERTO RICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO LA PENINSULA DE
LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. THIS LOW CENTER WAS IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND IT HAS MOVED
NORTHEASTWARD STEADILY. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N65W...JUST TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...TO 22N60W. OTHER
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 25N
BETWEEN 49W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 19N32W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N36W AND 9N46W.
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N26W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N25W 18N28W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN AN AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF
30N18W 16N35W 30N42W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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