[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT WE HAD BEEN FOLLOWING HAS
DAMPENED OUT AND DISSIPATED BY 11/0000 UTC. IT IS NOT EVIDENT
IN SATELLITE DATA AT THIS TIME.

...THE ITCZ...

8N27W 8N40W 9N49W INTO NORTHEASTERN GUYANA NEAR 6N58W.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 8N
BETWEEN 12W AND 14W IN THE SIERRA LEONE COASTAL WATERS.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 20W AND 36W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 36W AND 60W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24W/25W FROM 4N TO 12N...MOVING
WESTWARD 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 18W AND 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL UTAH
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR
27N119W. A STREAM OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE UTAH-TO-27N119W TROUGH THAT IS WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 19N105W 22N100W 28N92W...BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO...WHERE THE DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES ALSO.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 24N51W TO
22N60W AND TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
21N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER...ACROSS
EASTERN PUERTO RICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 17N67W...AND TO
LA PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THIS LOW
CENTER WAS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND
IT HAS MOVED NORTHEASTWARD STEADILY. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND THE LOW CENTER FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN
62W AND 64W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE
FROM 18N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 67W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA BETWEEN THE
PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA AND LAKE
MARACAIBO OF VENEZUELA...AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF LA PENINSULA
DE LA GUAJIRA OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W IN COLOMBIA
AND COASTAL WATERS...IN A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOSTLY IS IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM
THE 21N63W LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO VENEZUELA HELPS TO MARK THE
BOUNDARY EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS THAT ARE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GREATER
ANTILLES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND
A TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 26N72W. A REMNANT CLOUD
LINE PASSES THROUGH 32N55W 29N60W 24N70W 24N75W IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. EXPECT POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS WITHIN 15 NM OR SO ALONG
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE...AND POSSIBLY BEHIND THE LINE.
THE 32N67W 26N72W TROUGH SUPPORTS STILL A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N46W TO 28N48W TO 24N51W...CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY
FRONT TO 22N60W AND TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 21N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER...
ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 17N67W...
AND TO LA PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.
THIS LOW CENTER WAS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST
FEW DAYS...AND IT HAS MOVED NORTHEASTWARD STEADILY. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND THE LOW CENTER FROM
19N TO 21N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND
67W. WHAT WAS BEING THE MAIN TROUGH IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS NOW HAS LIFTED EASTWARD AND
IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MAURITANIA. THE EARLIER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NOW IS NEAR 19N34W...WITH A TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS TO 14N40W AND 10N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ITCZ
ROUGHLY ALONG 24W/25W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 30N26W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N25W 19N28W.
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN AN AREA THAT
IS TO THE NORTH OF THE WESTERN CANARY ISLANDS...16N35W 30N42W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT







This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net