[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN SURINAME NEAR 03N57W TO
13N54W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITHIN
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL...
700 MB...RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLC NEAR
19N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF INTERIOR FRENCH GUIANA AND EASTERN SURINAME.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 04N26W 02N34W 05N52W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED WITHIN THE ITCZ REGION FROM 01N24W TO 11N21W.
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
04N-08N BETWEEN 17W-25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 08N BETWEEN 25W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOCATES OVER THE GULF THIS
EVENING BETWEEN A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. BENEATH THIS FLOW ALOFT...
SURFACE RIDGING ENVELOPES THE ENTIRE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA
PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG
88W...LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE...AS WINDS SHIFT E TO SE...IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W TO
THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON BAY. THIS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY
SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WESTWARD TO OVER NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLC TO 30N45W. BENEATH THIS UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR
19N68W THAT EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH S-SW TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA
NEAR 12N72W. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH...IT LARGELY DELINEATES BETWEEN E-SE TRADES OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES...AND GENERALLY LIGHT
NE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND GREATER ANTILLES.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOCATED OVER NE CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY
OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 16N E OF 67W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...AREAS OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 77W-88W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...AND S OF 13N W OF 81W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC AS A
994 MB STORM FORCE LOW CONTINUES SPINNING CENTERED NEAR 39N64W.
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIPS TO 30N AND REMAINS
LARGELY W OF 52W. ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGHING
BETWEEN 40W-50W...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N48W AND EXTENDS S-SW ALONG 25N50W 21N59W THEN
BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 21N65W AND INTO A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED
IN THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 19N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 27N AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT BETWEEN 49W-59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM
16N-24N BETWEEN 59W-66W. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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