[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA ALONG 53W S OF 12N MOVING W 12 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 53W-58W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 13N20W 5N24W 3N30W 3N40W
5N52W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST
AFRICA FROM 12N19W TO EQ22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-12N BETWEEN 16W-25W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
FROM EQ-10N BETWEEN 25W-38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 2N-5N
BETWEEN 38W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY NEAR 37N85W. A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...10 KT NE WINDS ARE E OF THE AXIS WHILE 10-15 KT SE
WINDS ARE W OF THE AXIS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER FLORIDA AND
THE E GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
NW GULF MOSTLY DUE TO RETURN FLOW FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 86W-90W
...AND FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 90W-97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. A BAND
OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR
20N106W TO LOUISIANA COVERING THE NW GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE MONA CHANNEL NEAR
18N68W. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE
LOW TO THE ATLANTIC AT 21N64W 22N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
ATLANTIC FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 66W-67W...AND FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN
62W-66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA...THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...AND E CUBA FROM 18N-22N
BETWEEN 67W-75W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER N
COLOMBIA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN
70W-77W...ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN
77W-88W...AND ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND COSTA RICA FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 80W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N61W ENHANCING THE LOW
LEVEL CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE TO 22N63W AND WEAKEN. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND EXTEND SW
TO N COLOMBIA AND PANAMA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N49W
25N53W 22N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 37N29W.
A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC N OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 21N25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM N
OF THE LOW CENTER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N61W PRODUCING
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS W OF 45W. THREE UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N40W...20N37W...AND 22N18W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO DRIFT
TO 32N48W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL E
ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA/MONTALVO







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