[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EDT WED NOV 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W FROM 2N TO 12N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 49W
AND 51W. POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN
51W AND 54W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N16W TO 11N20W...5N25W
4N32W 8N44W TO 10N50W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 39W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 20W/21W FROM 2N TO 11N...NEARLY STATIONARY.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN
20W AND 23W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 21W AND
25W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS WITH THE ITCZ ARE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND MEXICO. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NEW
MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. HIGH CLOUDS
ARE MOVING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM
MEXICO NEAR 20N106W THROUGH 25N100W...PARALLELING THE TEXAS
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. SOME OF THAT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 90W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
REST OF THE AREA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES
AROUND A RIDGE THAT GOES FROM A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 29N88W BEYOND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 24N54W
AND 22N59W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 22N59W TO PUERTO
RICO...AND EVENTUALLY TO A CARIBBEAN SEA 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN
60W AND 66W. THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 50W. THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS THAT ARE JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...TO 31N68W.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N68W TO 30N70W
AND 30N75W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT. THE REMNANT
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF TOMAS IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR
37N58W. A COLD FRONT THAT EMANATES FROM THE LOW CENTER PASSES
THROUGH 32N53W TO 24N54W AND 22N59W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 22N59W TO PUERTO RICO...AND EVENTUALLY TO
A CARIBBEAN SEA 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N68W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N49W 21N55W 20N62W...
AND FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GOES FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N51W
TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N45W...TO A THIRD
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N38W TO 16N38W. POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 36W AND 46W. A CUT-OFF CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 21N21W.
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N TO 26N BETWEEN 16W
AND 30W. A SURFACE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 21N24W.
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 25N
BETWEEN 22W AND 28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT









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