[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 092345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N50W TO 16N48W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN DEEP TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-55W THAT COINCIDES
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. WHILE MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE ITCZ TO THE SE OF THE WAVE AXIS...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN 47W-53W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 05N23W 04N34W 06N47W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AND ANALYZED FROM 06N22W TO EAST OF DAKAR
SENEGAL NEAR 15N16W. A BROAD AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS LOCATED SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM 02N-12N
BETWEEN 11W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 35W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS
LOCATES OVER MUCH OF THE GULF DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ALONG 94W. THIS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR
29N88W THAT EXPANDS RIDGING EASTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SW NORTH ATLC W OF 70W AND WESTWARD TO EASTERN MEXICO AND SE
TEXAS ALONG 98W. WHILE MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS PERSIST...AN AREA
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 87W-91W DUE TO WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF E-NE FLOW. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SW CONUS AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IS
FORECAST TO ORGANIZE AND DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EXTEND A COLD FRONT ALONG THE TEXAS GULF
COAST BY LATE FRIDAY...EMERGING INTO THE NW GULF EARLY SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE
NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N65W WITH INFLUENCE SPREADING WESTWARD TO
CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTWARD TO 45W. BENEATH THIS DIFFLUENT
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE BASIN NEAR
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND EXTENDS SW TO 17N68W THEN INTO A 1007 MB
LOW CENTERED NEAR 15N68W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 63W-68W. WITH THE LOW
FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
PUERTO RICO...AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 72W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY N TO NE
WINDS AND OVERALL STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OFF
THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND NEAR 40N68W AND DIPS TROUGHING TO 30N
BETWEEN 62W-75W. THIS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT MOVING SE INTO THE
REGION ANALYZED FROM 32N68W TO 31N78W WITH STRONGER NW WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. FARTHER SE...THE REMNANT LOW OF TOMAS...A 1000
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N57W CONTINUES TO RACE N-NE EXTENDING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG 29N54W 25N54W 22N57W BECOMING STATIONARY
TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 19N-29N BETWEEN 46W-53W WELL EAST OF THE FRONT...
WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED FROM
18N-21N BETWEEN 56W-61W AND S OF 21N BETWEEN 62W-68W. FARTHER
EAST...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES MOVING SE OVER THE
EASTERN ATLC CENTERED NEAR 21N39W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 36W-42W. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION LOCATES
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N34W. THIS RIDGE
EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN ATLC N OF 22N E OF 45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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