[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE NOV 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N46W TO 6N48W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NEAR THE
ITCZ NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT AT THE MOMENT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN
37W AND 50W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W
WESTWARD ALONG 7N18 4N30W 5N40W 6N45W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA
NEAR 6N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ...ANALYZED
FROM 13N17W TO 5N21W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 37W AND 50W...AND
FROM 2N TO 10N E OF 21W. THESE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE ALSO
ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED
ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED
BY A 1020 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF ALABAMA CENTERED NEAR 30N87W.
THIS FEATURE BRINGS LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC SFC FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR ALOFT FURTHER SUPPORTING THE SURFACE HIGH. COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST THE DRY SPELL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES NE INTO THE SE CONUS.
THEN...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL POSSIBLY DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL
GULF AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN...CENTERED IN THE FAR NE BASIN JUST OFF THE SE COAST
OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...AT SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS
THE BASIN NEAR THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EXTENDS SW TO A 1007
MB LOW NEAR 14N70W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE SURFACE LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
63W-69W OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE SAME
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BRINGING CONVECTION TO EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO...AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS VERY LIKELY OVER PUERTO RICO...SINCE MOST
OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED IN THIS REGION. THE SURFACE
RIDGING DISCUSSED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION IS BRINGING
SURFACE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN BASIN W OF 70W...WITH ONLY SCATTERED WEAK
SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE REMNANT LOW OF TOMAS IS A 1000 MB GALE LOCATED NEAR 30N58W
TRACKING NNE OUT OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION...BECOMING EMBEDDED
IN A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT MOVES OFF THE EASTERN CONUS
SEABOARD NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN OCCLUDED FRONT
SURROUNDS THE NORTH AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW...BECOMING
A COLD FRONT NEAR 29N55W THAT EXTENDS SW ALONG 22N57W TO 19N62W.
FROM THIS POINT IT BECOMES STATIONARY ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA
THROUGH THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE
PRODUCING SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 55W
AND 57W...AND FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. A FAIRLY
STRONG SUB-TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAK HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC WITH A EAST TO WEST AXIS FROM 28N57W TO 26N75W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR FROM 22N TO 32N WEST
OF 55W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE JETSTREAK. THIS FEATURE WILL
FURTHER SUPPORT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FARTHER EAST...A WEAK ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS
GENERATING SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W
AND 52W. THE REST OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH WEST OF THE AZORES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING WEST OF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
20N21W BRINGING WEAK SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE COASTAL WATERS
OF MAURITANIA FROM 17N TO 21N E OF 21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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