[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EDT TUE NOV 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N47W 12N46W 7N46W...MOVING WESTWARD
10 TO 15 KT. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MIXED
WITH ITCZ PRECIPITATION FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AT 7N12W TO 5N25W 6N45W 7N48W...
TO COASTAL SURINAME ALONG 56W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MIXED WITH ITCZ
PRECIPITATION FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...RELATED
TO THE 17N47W 7N46W TROPICAL WAVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
18W FROM 4N TO 10N. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AFTER THE LAST COLD FRONT
SPANS THE GULF WATERS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF
22N...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH
26N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 25N79W...TO A 29N89W SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...TO 20N97W ALONG THE
MEXICO GULF COAST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE TO THE
WEST OF THE LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 23N84W 26N84W 29N90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT ORIGINATES FROM THE 998 MB TOMAS GALE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO 20N61W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N61W...
THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO A 1007 MB CARIBBEAN SEA LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 18N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. SURFACE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA AND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS FLOW IS RELATED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO
SURFACE RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE REMNANT LOW OF TOMAS IS A 998 MB GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 28N60W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TOWARD
THE REMNANT LOW OF TOMAS NEAR 27N65W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT
CONTINUES FROM THE 998 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO A 27N58W TRIPLE
POINT. A WARM FRONT GOES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 20N54W.
A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 20N61W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N61W...THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE
TO A 1007 MB CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
14N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
32N58W 24N53W 19N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N51W
26N46W 19N40W 14N47W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N46W 16N40W 22N39W 25N44W
28N45W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TOWARD THE REMNANT LOW
CENTER. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NOW IS IN PHASE WITH THE BROAD
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W. A CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 20N234W. CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 30W. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A 34W/35W RIDGE THAT
RUNS FROM 18N TO 32N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






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