[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N45W 9N43W 2N42W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS EVIDENT IN THE CYCLONIC CURVATURE OF THE LOW CLOUDS.
CONVECTION NEARBY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 9N13W 4N25W 5N32W 7N42W 5N53W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 39W-50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 3N3W TO 7N15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER ALABAMA AND A WEAKER 1024 MB
HIGH OVER SE MEXICO NEAR 20N98W. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER S ALABAMA COVERS THE GULF WATERS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT LIMITING MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROKEN LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE CENTRAL
GULF FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 83W-93W. SIMILAR CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
S OF 26N E OF 83W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED S OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 15N71W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF THE MONA PASSAGE
NEAR 18N68W ALONG 14N68W TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N69W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-17N
BETWEEN 66W-73W. THE TAIL-END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR FROM 18N63W
TO 15N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT REMAIN OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LOW/TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 65W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION JUST E OF BERMUDA
EXTENDING TO NEAR 27N67W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH NEAR 27N65W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR
18N64W SUPPORTING A DEEP 997 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 26N66W WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SE ALONG 22N62W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER
THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR FROM 18N63W. A NARROW UPPER
RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E OF THESE UPPER FEATURES PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM E OF BOTH FRONTS. AN ELONGATED UPPER
LOW IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR 24N48W WITH
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE TO THE E EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICS NEAR
2N30W ALONG 23N39W TO BEYOND 32N43W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 38W-48W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF
LINE FROM 14N40W TO 33N47W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NW OF
THE AZORES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
SMM/PAW




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