[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081137
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EDT MON NOV 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N43W 10N41W 3N39W...MOVING WESTWARD
10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWED UP REALLY WELL IN THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY ON 07/1845 UTC. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 35W AND 44W...AND FROM
11N TO 17N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 4N28W 5N39W...
INTO FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N54W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 11W AND 16W...WITHIN
90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N16W 6N25W 5N34W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N
BETWEEN 30W AND 50W...AND FROM THE AFRICA COAST SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W. RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 1S BETWEEN 30W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT PUSHED THE LAST COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA IS LEAVING REMNANT MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 90W...INCLUDING ACROSS
THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES FROM MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD...INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 69W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO
BETWEEN 95W AND 105W...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO AND BEYOND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND
A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN LOUISIANA TOWARD THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 20N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 22N64W TO
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN ARUBA...CURACAO AND
LA PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N69W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 58W AND 67W.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS
WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 15.5N 67.5W...13N69W...AND 15N71W.
OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA
AND COLOMBIA BETWEEN 63W AND 77W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA MAY BE RELATED TO A NEARBY MIDDLE
LEVEL TROUGH. SHOWERS MAY BE IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA
TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN TO THE WEST OF
80W...IN OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS. STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM EAST CENTRAL NICARAGUA
TO 13N76W AND NORTHWARD ALONG 76W TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THESE
CLOUDS MOVED INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OF A FEW DAYS
AGO THAT BROUGHT COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE REMNANT LOW OF TOMAS IS A 994 MB STORM LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 26N68W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TOWARD
THE REMNANT LOW OF TOMAS. AN OCCLUDED FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE
994 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 26N66W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 26N66W TO 22N64W...AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE
WEST OF 69W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TOWARD THE REMNANT
LOW CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 29N63W
25N62W TO 20N61W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N53W...
TO A 23N50W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 15N49W...TO 6N52W.
A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N55W TO 26N53W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W...AND FROM
26N TO 29N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT RUNS FROM
16N29N BEYOND 32N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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