[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071128
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS AT 07/0900 UTC IS NEAR 26.2N
68.8W. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSW OF BERMUDA.
TOMAS IS MOVING NE AT 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 989 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER OF TOMAS HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY THUS STORM INTENSITY IS
LESSENED BY 5 KT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL WITHIN 20 NM
OF THE E SEMICIRCLE. THE MAIN CORE OF CONVECTION IS NOW OVER
OPEN WATER E OF THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG  CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 65W-69W. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS N OF TOMAS PRODUCING SHOWERS N OF TOMAS.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS FROM 7N11W TO 4N20W 4N40W 10N57W 9N62W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM
3N-7N BETWEEN 8W-12W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N
BETWEEN 23W-30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED ON THE ITCZ ALONG
56W FROM 8N-17N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N91W. A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE. COOL 15-20 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS COVER THE E GULF E OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHILE 10
KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE W OF THE AXIS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE S GULF S OF 27N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
92W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...CONTINUED SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION...
WITH NO CHANGE IN WINDS. ALSO EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND NO CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
COOL 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH
BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. FURTHER S...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 8N-10N
BETWEEN 78W-82W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO NW VENEZUELA ALONG 20N68W 10N70W DRIFTING E.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF
VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 10-13N BETWEEN 69W-73W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 64W-70W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N71W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 71W. EXPECT THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO DRIFT E TO 66W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION
E OF 73W. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND THE
SW CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TOMAS IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A STATIONARY FRONT IS N
OF TOMAS FROM 32N68W TO 28N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
28N-32N BETWEEN 69W-72W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 30N50W 18N54W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 37W-50W ...AND ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 44W-53W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...A SURFACE LOW TO FORM NEAR 27N51W AND
MOVE NW TO 33N56W...WHILE TOMAS FURTHER WEAKENS DUE TO INCREASED
SHEAR AND DRIFTS E.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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