[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT NOV 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS AT 06/1200 UTC IS NEAR
22.5N 70.9W. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 60 NM TO THE NORTH OF
GRAND TURK ISLAND. TOMAS IS MOVING NE AT 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE WITH 90 NM OF THE SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE NE QUADRANT. THE MAIN CORE OF CONVECTION
COVERS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
WITH NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 69W-73W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-21N
BETWEEN 70W-73W. A COLD FRONT IS NW OF TOMAS MOVING E...AND
PRODUCING FRONTAL CONVECTION N OF TOMAS.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS FROM 9N13W TO 4N25W 10N37W 8N43W 11N53W
10N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED ON THE ITCZ ALONG 36W FROM
7N-15N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-16N BETWEEN 27W-34W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED ON
THE ITCZ ALONG 52W FROM 7N-16N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 42W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR
23N99W. COOL 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS COVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE NE GULF E OF 88W...AND OVER THE S GULF S OF 24N TO
INCLUDE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR...CONTINUED SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHERLY FLOW
WITH NO CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...COOL 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITH BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. TOMAS IS
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS PRODUCING HEAVY CONVECTION.
SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 18N72W TO
14N72W TO N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W MOVING E. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN N OF 12N BETWEEN 65W-68W ESPECIALLY OVER PUERTO RICO.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 78W. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE
E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION E OF 75W. ALSO EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N69W
TO 27N71W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N75W MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
25N. TOMAS IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N34W 27N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH
TO DEVELOP ALONG 50W N OF 20N...WHILE THE TWO SURFACE TROUGHS
OVER THE TROPICS CONTINUE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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