[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS AT 06/0000 UTC IS NEAR 20.4N
73.1W. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF GREAT INAGUA
ISLAND. TOMAS IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
MAIN CORE OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER COVERS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA. THE LARGE SCALE FLOW
PATTERN RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM IS DRAWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
FROM NORTHERN S AMERICA INTO A GREAT PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BASIN PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION BETWEEN 66W AND 75W N OF 12N.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 9N13W WESTWARD ALONG 8N20 10N30W 7N40W 8N50W BECOMING
INDISTINCT AFTER 9N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N
TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE
ITCZ ANALYZED FROM 13N32W TO 6N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE ITCZ ANALYZED
FROM 14N48W TO 9N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N
TO 15N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A CONTINENTAL DRY AND COLD AIRMASS HAS MOVED OVER THE GULF...AS
MARINE OBS AND LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW GUSTY 20
KT TO 30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. ALSO...SATELLITE
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS S OF 26N W
OF 88W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
OVER THE NE BASIN. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NORTHERLY GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THEN RELAX GRADUALLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS
THE SE CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD SFC CYCLONIC 15-20 KT FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE TOMAS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
CUBA AND MOST OF THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 22N78W 18N81W 16N85W.
INTERESTING ENOUGH...TO SEE A COLD FRONT AND A HURRICANE WITHIN
GEOGRAPHICAL DISTANCE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS QUITE RARE. THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW PATTERN RELATED TO THESE TWO FEATURES ALONG WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS DRAWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
FROM NORTHERN S AMERICA AND E PACIFIC REGION INTO A GREAT
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN BASIN PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN 66W AND
75W N OF 12N...AND BETWEEN 75W AND 82W S OF 13N. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION IS MOVING NORTHWARD IMPACTING HAITI AND DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. WHILE THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT OF HAITI AND
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS....COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD AFFECTING PUERTO RICO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN CONUS AND SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N70W AND
CONTINUES SW ALONG 26N74W CROSSING THE BAHAMAS AND THEN CUBA
ALONG 22N77W. DRY NW SFC WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE TO THE WEST OF
THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT UP TO 180 NM AHEAD. EMBEDDED IN
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS HURRICANE TOMAS STARTING TO AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD AND TOMAS TRACKS NNE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE W ATLC E OF THE FRONT. FARTHER
EAST...LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 40 NM OF
A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR LINE ANALYZED ALONG 28N48W 26N53W 29N61W.
ALSO...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N33W
EXTENDING S-SW TO 25N39W...THEN CONTINUES SW AS A SURFACE TROUGH
TO NEAR 21N47W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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