[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051202
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE TOMAS IS CENTERED NEAR 18.8N 74.79W AT 05/1200 UTC OR
ABOUT 85 NM SSE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA AND ABOUT 130 NM W OF PORT AU
PRINCE HAITI MOVING NE AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 85 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
16N-21N BETWEEN 71W-78W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SPREADS NORTH AND EAST OVER
HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
AND SE BAHAMAS FROM 15N-24N BETWEEN 67W-79W. TOMAS IS FORECAST
TO TRACK NE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTO THE SW NORTH
ATLC THROUGH LATE SATURDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND MUD SLIDES OVER HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/
WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 09N13W 07N19W 10N30W 09N34W 05N53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-09N BETWEEN 16W-22W AND FROM
02N-07N BETWEEN 21W-26W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 07N32W TO 16N28W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 27W-33W AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 32W-36W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM NORTH
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 36W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN CONUS ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W
ATLC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM WEST PALM BEACH
TO NEAR EVERGLADES CITY AND INTO THE GULF ALONG 26N81W TO
21N87W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND THIS
RESULTS IN THE COLD FRONT LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION...AND THEREFORE REMAINING PRIMARILY A STRONG
NORTHERLY WIND PRODUCER. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA KEYS THIS MORNING...BUT
ARE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND LOCATING OVER THE W ATLC WATERS.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...INCLUDING GALE FORCE OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GULF...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...THEN RELAX GRADUALLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
PROVIDES THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT N OF
16N W OF 81W...AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE GULF THIS MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 14N72W. EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS FEATURE ALOFT ON THE NW
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS HURRICANE TOMAS WHICH
CONTINUES TO TRACK NE TOWARD THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE MAIN CORE OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
HAS BLOSSOMED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED TSTMS LOCATED ELSEWHERE FROM 15N-24N BETWEEN 67W-79W.
TO THE SOUTH OF TOMAS...A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM
S OF TOMAS NEAR 14N75W TO COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W. THIS
SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW ORIGINATES IN THE E PACIFIC REGION
AND ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 09N-15N BETWEEN 70W-84W...INCLUDING
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. FARTHER EAST...SE
TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 68W WITH LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOCUSING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF A
LINE FROM TRINIDAD N-NW TO THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN CONUS AND SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N76W EXTENDING
SW TO WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA THEN INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. A
LARGE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
IS PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EXTENDING
FROM NORTH OF HURRICANE TOMAS NEAR 21N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN
68W-78W. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS FOCUSED WITHIN 120 NM EAST
OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
24N77W TO 30N74W. AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD AND TOMAS
TRACKS NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE W ATLC E OF THE FRONT. WEST OF
THE COLD FRONT...NW TO N WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP W OF 70W
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS AND THE CIRCULATION OF
TOMAS. FARTHER EAST...LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOUND
WITHIN SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 30N40W TO 27N54W. ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG 49W THAT DIPS
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 10N49W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N35W EXTENDING
S-SW TO 26N40W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE
FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES SW
TO NEAR 28N32W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED FROM 30N22W TO
THE W AFRICA COAST NEAR 24N16W AND EXHIBITS A CYCLONIC SHIFT IN
LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN





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